What would you do if a doctor assessed your broken arm as “yellow = 2”? You would probably insist on an X-ray. And this is exactly where the problem in Enterprise Risk Management begins. In many companies, risks are still assessed like this today: With gut feeling. With workshops. With traffic-light colors. ➡️ For decisions involving millions or billions. In our new episode of “The Debate,” two worlds collide: • Expert-based risk assessment: experience, intuition, implicit knowledge • Quantitative models: probabilities, simulations, scalability And it quickly becomes clear: This is not just about methods. It is about a cultural conflict. In the video, we discuss, among other things: • Why classic risk workshops can systematically introduce bias • Why models are more objective, but not automatically “true” • What Monte Carlo simulations actually deliver • Why small risks are often more dangerous than large ones • Why many model projects fail in practice • And why the future lies neither in gut feeling nor in pure mathematics alone One thought from the discussion sticks out in particular: 👉 The expert is the family doctor. 👉 The model is the X-ray. 👉 The diagnosis only emerges from the interplay of both. So the interesting question is not: Human or machine? But rather: How do we bring both together so that risks are actually managed, not just documented? 🎥 Watch the video here: https://lnkd.in/dCqyMHSt
This post was originally published on LinkedIn. View and join the discussion there