Today I am starting the lecture course “Monte Carlo Business Modelling” at the Dresden University of Applied Sciences (HTW Dresden). Together with the students, we develop a business model step by step, from the first vision to a stable business process. We start with the fundamental building blocks of a company: • products • production • employees • customers • resources • environment and market Building on that, we systematically refine the model: • value propositions • key partners, key activities, and key resources • customer segments, customer relationships, and sales channels • cost structure and revenue streams From these elements, we build a digital twin of the business model. We analyze this model using Monte Carlo methods: • explicit modeling of all assumptions • description of dependencies between the factors • simulation of the central value and risk drivers This produces a quantitative picture of key questions: • What really drives the company's value? • Where are the biggest risks? • How robust is the business model under different scenarios? We simulate the development of the company across different phases, from founding through growth phases to establishment as a stable company. The simulations can be run in real time and ultimately result in a presentation and a final report, just as investors or boards need them for their decisions. I am very much looking forward to the lecture course and to working with the students on these business models.
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