What do you do when reality has longer tails than the usual distributions allow? Many risk analyses are based on expert assessments, for example on delivery times, project durations, or attack frequencies in cyber risks. But classic distributions like the PERT or triangular distribution quickly reach their limits here: - shoulders that are too wide - artificially truncated tails - unrealistic extreme values The expert distribution available in Risk Kit offers an elegant way out. It allows uncertainties to be described using freely selectable quantiles, that is, with values that are directly interpretable and easy for experts to estimate. The result is a model that realistically captures the course of a risk all the way into the extreme values: traceable, flexible, and robust. In the new Risk Kit video, we show how the expert distribution can be used, and why it represents one of the strongest extensions for professional Monte Carlo simulations. Watch now: https://lnkd.in/eB36MDZm #RiskManagement #MonteCarloSimulation #RiskKit #ExpertAssessments
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