Wehrspohn Risk Management

Vacation or traffic jam?

July 12, 2026

Vacation or traffic jam? Four routes lead from Mannheim to Lake Garda. On top of that, there are four possible departure times. Each of the sixteen combinations has its own opportunities and risks. Which one is the best? To find out, I simulated the trip ten thousand times with Risk Kit. Traffic, construction sites, bottlenecks, accidents, closures, and breaks were modeled as specific risk factors using data from ADAC, the Swiss TCS, and the Austrian ASFiNAG. But even a very good simulation does not automatically answer the question of how you should decide. Because besides the results, something else plays a decisive role. That is what my new film is about: “Vacation or traffic jam? Making better decisions through simulation” What would you prefer: the chance of an especially fast trip, the most reliable travel time possible, or a comfortable Saturday morning departure? https://lnkd.in/eYgEFqeG

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