How much should you bet on your own team? To help answer that question, we simulated the entire 2026 World Cup 100,000 times, using Elo ratings to represent each team’s current strength. The simulation estimates each nation’s probability of winning the tournament based on what we know today. These probabilities will change as the tournament unfolds. I will therefore publish regular updates throughout the World Cup. For now, this is our starting point. Watch the video and find out how strong your team’s chances really are.
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