2026 World Cup: halfway through the group stage. There is a new favorite. 36 of 72 group games have been played, so it is time for an update to our Monte Carlo model for the 2026 World Cup. The matches already played are no longer uncertain, they are now fixed facts. At the same time, the Elo strengths were updated and the tournament was re-simulated with Risk Kit. The result: the favorite has changed. In the video, I show how strongly new information affects the forecast, covering everything from title chances to the biggest surprises to the question of why the ranking alone is not enough to determine the most likely world champion.
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