Wehrspohn Risk Management

๐Ÿ” The 2025 German Federal Election as a Risk Model - Majorities - Probabilities - Kingmakers

February 2, 2025

๐Ÿ” ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ ๐—š๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—™๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—˜๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฎ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ ๐—ฅ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ธ ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—น - ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ท๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ - ๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ - ๐—ž๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ The 2025 German federal election is drawing closer, and polls point to an initial direction. But how reliable are these forecasts? Which coalitions are realistic? And how much can voter preferences still shift before election day? In our latest video, we present a data-based election simulation built on current poll numbers and their statistical uncertainty. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we calculate thousands of possible election outcomes, analyze seat distributions, and assess potential majority scenarios. ๐Ÿ“Š What can you expect in the video? โœ… The factors that influence election polls and their uncertainty โœ… Simulation of the seat distribution in the Bundestag under the 2025 electoral reform โœ… Analysis of likely coalitions and possible "kingmaker" parties โœ… Scenarios for narrow or stable majorities ๐Ÿ”— Watch the video here: https://lnkd.in/eJRdxcTG What do you think, which coalitions are realistic? How much will the poll numbers still shift? ๐Ÿš€ #GermanFederalElection #DataAnalysis #ElectionForecast #Simulation

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